<![CDATA[Newsroom University of Manchester]]> /about/news/ en Sun, 29 Dec 2024 12:29:39 +0100 Mon, 03 Oct 2022 15:30:31 +0200 <![CDATA[Newsroom University of Manchester]]> https://content.presspage.com/clients/150_1369.jpg /about/news/ 144 New Manchester master’s course will boost data literacy, help fight fake news and disinformation /about/news/new-manchester-masters-course-will-boost-data-literacy-help-fight-fake-news-and-disinformation/ /about/news/new-manchester-masters-course-will-boost-data-literacy-help-fight-fake-news-and-disinformation/535361Vlogٷ has launched a new postgraduate degree aimed at developing data analysis experts to help in the continuing fight against disinformation and fake news.

The new Data Analytics and Social Statistics master’s degree will begin in September 2023 and promises to be a pioneering course that prioritises data veracity and analysis.

, Course Director, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Social Statistics and the chair of the Social Statistics Section of the Royal Statistical Society, says:

“In a time of disinformation campaigns, this master’s is well-placed to promote data literacy and inform the next generation of data scientists with the skills to tackle such issues.

This master’s will enable students to confidently analyse real-world data by using the latest statistical software and methods. The course covers all the stages of working with data from data collection, importing, wrangling and visualisation to analysis and presentation.”

As data continues to improve in scope and specificity, we need to develop the next generation of data scientists to harness this information effectively and create actionable insights that will improve our world. 

The course was developed to help address key world challenges, such as inequality and data privacy, and to produce impact in various contexts including policymaking, education, healthcare, medicine and voluntary work.

, Lecturer in Social Statistics, says: “Using real-world social data can really make a big impact in terms of social problems. It helps with bigger picture, if more people understand the context of the data and how it’s used, people can create an impact.”

The new Master’s in Data Analytics and Social Statistics was designed with these issues at the forefront and with the need to combat fake news and disinformation in mind. Students will be taught by experts in social sciences and data sciences, working with real-world data in this highly practical course.

Tailored for busy working professionals, this master’s is 100% online, allowing students to easily fit it into their schedules amongst their other commitments. Aimed at individuals from industries as wide as education, health, business analytics and non-profits, this course will empower students to leverage data for predictive purposes.

Prospective students will also be able to apply for an Equity and Merit Scholarship, created to promote the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. These scholarships are open to applicants from Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe with the potential to deliver solutions to encourage sustainable development.

Based firmly in practical techniques such as data analysis using R, students already working within data analysis will be able to apply their learning directly into their daily work. Newcomers to the field will be able to upskill and use this degree as a conversion to a new career.

Topics covered in this course include data visualisation, statistical modelling, survey methods, research skills and more.

This course was specifically designed to help expand data literacy and encourage students to question the purpose of how statistics are presented and why. The context of data, including how it is used, is a key focus.

With the dissertation, students on this course can focus on a contemporary research topic of interest to showcase their quantitative and analytical skills. Students will be taught by researchers who conduct these activities in their professional work, further enhancing the practical and real-world dimension of the course.

Dr Alexandru Cernat comments:

“The dissertation will help bring all these skills together to create an analytics report or research paper that answers real-world problems using advanced statistical methods and complex data.”

The first class will begin in September 2023. Learn more about the new postgraduate course in Data Analytics and Social Statistics.

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Mon, 03 Oct 2022 13:55:27 +0100 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_shutterstock-18965274461.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/shutterstock-18965274461.jpg?10000
New study shows link between weather and spread of COVID-19 /about/news/new-study-shows-link-between-weather-and-spread-of-covid-19/ /about/news/new-study-shows-link-between-weather-and-spread-of-covid-19/483982A new meta-analysis of over 150 research papers published during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the link between the weather and the spread of the illness.

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A new meta-analysis of over 150 research papers published during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the link between the weather and the spread of the illness.

The study, published in the journal , was conceived and conducted at The University Manchester and led by Ling Tan, a visiting scientist at the . The team started with 158 studies that were published early in the pandemic using data before November 2020.

Because many viral respiratory diseases show seasonal cycles, weather conditions could affect the spread of COVID-19. Although many studies tried to examine this possible link, their results were often inconsistent.

Tan performed meta-regression analysis on the data from previously published articles to make sense of this large body of data derived from locations all around the world, using inconsistent research methods, and using a variety of different datasets with varying study quality. The results were exceptionally revealing.

From this large dataset, the team found several principal findings, including that 80 of the 158 studies did not state the time lag between infection and reporting, rendering these studies ineffective in determining the weather–COVID-19 relationship.

The data also showed Asian countries had more positive associations for air temperature than other regions, possibly because the temperature was undergoing its seasonal increase from winter to spring during the rapid outbreak of COVID-19 in these countries showing how correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Higher solar energy was also associated with reduced COVID-19 spread, regardless of statistical analysis method and geographical location.

Lead author Ling Tan said: “The public generally believes that there is a negative relationship between temperature and COVID-19, such as the higher the temperature, the slower the spread of the pandemic. However, previous studies did not consistently get this result. We found two reasons for this. First, most of these studies use a simple analysis approach called linear regression, which would produce a straight line for all temperatures. But, the stability of the virus may be maximum at moderate temperatures, for example; very low and very high temperatures may make the virus inactive, for which linear regression would be an inappropriate analysis.”

“Second, the rapid outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in some countries in the early stages would overwhelm the more subtle weather effects. Thus, we recommend that future studies use nonlinear regression models to capture the association between weather and COVID-19."

Professor David Schultz, who was a co-author on the study said: "What was most surprising to me was that over half of the studies we examined (80 out of 158) did not say that they accounted for the time lag between the weather on the day the people were infected and the day when their COVID-19 illness was reported. We know this could be as much as two weeks. Thus, these studies were either poorly designed or poorly communicated. Thus, we had to throw these studies out of further analysis because we couldn’t trust their results.”

The results from the meta-regression analysis surprised the researchers who began to see links with sunlight on the virus spread. “We were able to show across these remaining 78 studies that higher solar energy was associated with reduced COVID-19 spread, regardless of statistical analysis method and the geographical location of the study, possibly due to the benefits of ultraviolet radiation and vitamin D on reducing COVID-19 spread or because sunlight inactivates the virus.” said Professor Schultz.

This research also suggests best practices that should be considered in future studies of disease and weather conditions.

A link to the full article can be found here:

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Wed, 24 Nov 2021 09:26:12 +0000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_covid-19-fc.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/covid-19-fc.jpg?10000
University students accurately track time taken for new Premier League stars to find their feet /about/news/university-students-accurately-track-time-taken-for-new-premier-league-stars-to-find-their-feet/ /about/news/university-students-accurately-track-time-taken-for-new-premier-league-stars-to-find-their-feet/346048It could take half a season for a footballer to adjust to a new team following a big money transfer to a new league according to analysis by Vlogٷ based on data provided by a club.

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It could take half a season for a footballer to adjust to a new team following a big money transfer to a new league according to analysis by Vlogٷ based on data provided by a club.

University students have used in-depth performance data to define how long it takes football players to find their form when transferring between clubs in Europe’s biggest leagues.

This year’s final marked the cessation of European men’s club football for another season. Like clockwork the back-pages became flooded with footballing transfer gossip and eye-watering sums of money for sought after stars throughout the summer.

Now a University of Manchester project in association with a Premier League club has delved into a huge data set to determine the time it takes for players to settle-in when transitioning to a different league in a new country. The team found that not only are there differences in transition times between the leagues, but the position of the player also heavily impacts on their initial form.

Speculation in the transfer market isn’t an exact science, but new data analysis suggests it could be. With access to a wealth of valuable data from Opta, the team found several striking statistics based on years of comparative information on individual performances.

Upon transferring a forward player to England from another European league, a Premier League club can expect that player to take 6 matches to adjust if they transfer from Spain, or 18 matches if they transfer from France or the Netherlands. Whereas for a defender, there is no adjustment period if they transfer to England from Spain, but they might take nine matches if they come from the .

Dr Andrew Markwick, a Lecturer in the school of Physics and Astronomy set the big data challenge for his students. “Using a large data set of player performance statistics spanning the main European leagues going back several seasons, the students were able to quantify the transition period occurring when players transfer between these leagues.” he said.

“They found that such a period does indeed exist, and that it is different for different origin and destination leagues, and that it varies by position. The project work confirms that in general a transition period does exist and quantifies it. This information would be very valuable to clubs operating in the transfer market, particularly if a short-term change is sought.”

Each summer, transfer windows seems to carry inevitable new records for spending between Europe’s biggest leagues. English Premier League clubs alone spent £1.2 billion on acquiring new talent by the close of the window last August.

Jelle Houtman from the School of Physics and Astronomy said: “It’s amazing the University gave us the opportunity to research something in which we’re so interested. Our previous years here helped us to develop some great ideas about how we could tackle this project, using machine learning algorithms on a massive dataset and the results lined up very well with expectations too.”

The team focussed on transfers between clubs in England, Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy and France. The biggest settling period by far is for defenders moving from England’s Premier league to in France.

The transition period is determined by individuals’ prior level of performance and the change in stats caused by a big money transfer to a different club.

Physics student James Simpson who also help evaluate the data said: "Having access to such an extensive Opta dataset from the first week was an exciting prospect. It was great to work on this project as it gave us a lot of freedom to investigate a subject we were genuinely interested in."

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Thu, 25 Jul 2019 11:00:00 +0100 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_stock-photo-football-in-the-goal-net-82073227.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/stock-photo-football-in-the-goal-net-82073227.jpg?10000
Premier League: how English football's top flight favours fans of London clubs /about/news/premier-league-how-english-footballs-top-flight-favours-fans-of-london-clubs/ /about/news/premier-league-how-english-footballs-top-flight-favours-fans-of-london-clubs/327896, and ,

The English Premier League (EPL) is the most in the world and one of the most of any kind. But the benefits may be relatively skewed towards people who live in London. Not only has the UK capital had more clubs per fan in the EPL than any other region since the league was created in the 1992/93 season, but their fans have to pay less to travel to see their clubs play away matches.

Over the 26 years the league has been in operation, the number of EPL clubs based in London has remained relatively stable at approximately six. Meanwhile, the number of clubs from different regions has fluctuated. The largest reduction was observed in the north of England where the number of EPL clubs fell from ten out of 20 in 1995/96 (when the EPL was reduced from 22 to 20) to seven out of 20 in 2018/19. There was large variation in participation from teams in the Midlands or the east of England and a small increase in the number of clubs from the south and Wales, with the participation of Brighton & Hove Albion FC, AFC Bournemouth and Cardiff City in 2018/19.

 

 

If you dig deeper, you can see that the northwest and, especially, Yorkshire & Humber are the biggest losers over time (Figure 2) – although Leeds United and Sheffield United are currently sitting pretty on the Championship (the second tier of English football) table and may well join the EPL in 2019/20. This implies that there may be stronger regional representation, with Huddersfield (Yorkshire) and Fulham (London) looking destined for relegation to the Championship.

If you adjust this calculation for population size (assuming one club per approximately 2.5m people – distributing fairly 20 clubs across around 51m people), the north of England and London were – and still are – the only two regions punching above their weight. But you can also see a change over time as London has surpassed the north in terms of “over-representation” of clubs from the region. The north’s losses have benefited the south and Wales. Once again, drilling down into lower level regions, it becomes clear that the north-west is the only region comparable to London (Figure 3).

For example, in the 2018/19 EPL season, there were six clubs from London (“observed”) and based on a population around 8,200,000 people from the 2011 Census we would expect around three clubs (“expected”). Meanwhile the north-west of England has a population of around 7.5m so, again, you would expect around three clubs – but there are five in the EPL.

Strain of the train

We decided to work out how much things were skewed in favour of London-based clubs and their fans. We calculated how much it costs for fans to follow their clubs on all away EPL fixtures, picking an arbitrary date: Saturday November 3, 2018. We used the most common kick-off time of 3pm and obtained rail and car travel estimates from Google maps and the national rail enquiries website. Unsurprisingly, following Newcastle United, in the northeast, was the most expensive choice – each committed Geordie had to spend around £2,500 on rail fares to attend all of the club’s away matches.

Bournemouth, on the south coast of England, Cardiff City in Wales and Huddersfield Town in Yorkshire were next in line – their fans had to spend more than £1,700. At the other end of the scale, fans of London clubs such as Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal faced an average cost of around £1,000. Fans of Liverpool and Manchester clubs had to spend around £1,400 and £1,200, respectively.

In total, rail fares for Newcastle United fans to attend all 19 away matches were in excess of £6.5m (accounting for away fan capacity and assuming sellout crowds). This is a clear outlier, reflecting Newcastle’s remoteness in relation to other clubs – although rail travel time for Novocastrians was better than expected. This at least reflects good services and connections – better than for Bournemouth, Cardiff and Burnley, for example, considering the distances.

Rail costs per mile further demonstrate a variation – Leicester fans, in particular, have the right to feel particularly aggrieved, with cost per mile travelled to or from London being 0.58p and to or from everywhere else 0.52p (averages for all other cities/towns, excluding London, were 0.43p and 0.47p, respectively).

Interesting point: for Bournemouth and Southampton fans, a return train ticket to London is slightly more expensive than for London-based fans travelling in the opposite direction.

In reality, all these costs are underestimates, since televised matches are played at times that make the lives of travelling fans very difficult – it may be impossible to get a direct train and an overnight stay may be essential, further adding to the costs. And these additional costs are likely to be higher for non-London supporters, since services outside London tend to be less frequent, while overnight stays in London are more expensive.

Level playing field

It becomes evident that football fans have to bear a disproportional cost in time and money, supporting an industry that makes massive profits. So, what can be done? Travelling fans are effectively sports “visitors” and should be treated with reciprocal respect, with more consideration given to televised matches and the distances fans have to travel.

The EPL could also acknowledge the travelling costs for away fans and offer financial support to clubs in a similar way to how broadcast and central income is distributed. This would allow each club to consider a ticket pricing strategy for its own fans or support travelling arrangements. Perhaps clubs could consider selling a bundle product which would include both match and rail ticket. Alternatively (or in addition), the government or football institutions could negotiate fairer “fixed” rail prices.

But it’s not all down to geography, as infrastructure also plays its part. London is at the centre of the biggest sports investments which have made the capital the natural host for national football events. It seems unfair that finals and FA Cup semi-finals and finals are hosted in London.

Wembley, the “headquarters” of English football, has historically been an integral part of the game in England and is recognised as a global football trademark. But always having cup finals there increases the time and expense for supporters of non-London clubs that are successful in these competitions. Perhaps the region of the finalists should be considered before a venue was decided.

This imbalance is a problem for the EPL as it may have implications for its attractiveness and for generating revenue overall. And, as the so-called “people’s sport”, it’s surely a problem that this emphasis in favour of London and London-based clubs makes life harder for fans with less money to travel to see their clubs play.

Football is one of the most loved sports in the UK and the world, bringing together families and friends over a number of generations. It’s a societal link of togetherness. It shouldn’t give an unfair advantage to London or lead loyal supporters to poverty.

, Principal Academic, and , Professor in Data Science and Health Services Research,

This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .

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Fri, 22 Mar 2019 09:56:24 +0000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_don039tuse-621345.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/don039tuse-621345.jpg?10000
Northern millennials less likely to live into their 50s than their southern English counterparts /about/news/northern-millennials-less-likely-to-live-into-their-50s-than-their-southern-english-counterparts/ /about/news/northern-millennials-less-likely-to-live-into-their-50s-than-their-southern-english-counterparts/324721By Professor 

 

File 20190130 108355 1r6ttok.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

 

 

There is a stark disparity in wealth and health between people in the north and south of England, commonly referred to as England’s “north-south divide”. The causes of this inequality are complex; it’s influenced by the environment, jobs, migration and lifestyle factors – as well as the long-term political power imbalances, which have in the south, especially in and around London.

 

Life expectancy is also lower in the north, mainly because the region is more deprived. But of national mortality data highlights a shockingly large mortality gap between young adults, aged 25 to 44, living in the north and south of England. This gap first emerged in the late 1990s, and seems to have been growing ever since.

 

In 1995, there were 2% more deaths among northerners aged 25 to 34 than southerners (in other words, 2% “excess mortality”). But by 2015, northerners in this age group were 29% more likely to die than their southern counterparts. Likewise, in the 35 to 44 age group, there was 3% difference in mortality between northerners and southerners in 1995. But by 2015, there were 49% more deaths among northerners than southerners in this age group.

 

Excess mortality in the north compared with south of England by age groups, from 1965 to 2015. Follow the lines to see that people born around 1980 are the ones most affected around 2015.

While mortality increased among northerners aged 25 to 34, and plateaued among 35 to 44-year-olds, southern mortality mainly declined across both age groups. Overall, between 2014 and 2016, northerners aged 25 to 44 were 41% more likely to die than southerners in the same age group. In real terms, this means that between 2014 and 2016, 1,881 more women and 3,530 more men aged between 25 and 44 years died in the north, than in the south.

What’s killing northerners?
To understand what’s driving this mortality gap among young adults, our team of researchers looked at the causes of death from 2014 to 2016, and sorted them into eight groups: accidents, alcohol related, cardiovascular related (heart conditions, diabetes, obesity and so on), suicide, drug related, breast cancer, other cancers and other causes.

Controlling for the age and sex of the population in the north and the south, we found that it was mostly the deaths of northern men contributing to the difference in mortality – and these deaths were by cardiovascular conditions, alcohol and drug misuse. Accidents (for men) and cancer (for women) also played important roles.

From 2014 to 2016, northerners were 47% more likely to die for cardiovascular reasons, 109% for alcohol misuse and 60% for drug misuse, across both men and women aged 25 to 44 years old. Although the national rate of death from cardiovascular reasons , the longstanding gap between north and south remains.

 

Death and deprivation

The gap in life expectancy between north and south is usually put down to socioeconomic deprivation. We considered further data for 2016, to find out if this held true for deaths among young people. We found that, while two thirds of the gap were explained by the fact that people lived in deprived areas, the remaining one third could be caused by some unmeasured form of deprivation, or by differences in culture, infrastructure, migration or extreme weather.

 

    

Mortality for people aged 25 to 44 years in 2016, at small area geographical level for the whole of England.

Northern men faced a higher risk of dying young than northern women – partly because overall mortality rates are higher for men than for women, pretty much at every age, but also because men tend to be . Although anachronistic, the expectation to have a job and be able to sustain a family weighs more on men. Accidents, alcohol misuse, drug misuse and suicide are all strongly associated with low socioeconomic status.

Suicide risk is twice as high among the most deprived men, compared to the most affluent. Suicide risk with unemployment, and substantial increases in suicide have been observed during periods of recession – especially among men. tells us that unskilled men between ages 25 and 39 are between ten and 20 times more likely to die from alcohol-related causes, compared to professionals.

Alcohol underpins the steep increase in liver cirrhosis deaths in Britain from the 1990s – which is when the north-south divide in mortality between people aged 25 to 44 also started to emerge. has shown that men in this age group, who live in the most deprived areas, are five times more likely to die from alcohol-related diseases than those in the most affluent areas. For women in deprived areas, the risk is four times greater.

It’s also widely known that mortality rates for cancer , and people have worse survival rates in places where smoking and alcohol abuse is more prevalent. Heroin and crack cocaine addiction and deaths from drug overdoses are also with deprivation.

The greater number of deaths from accidents in the north should be considered in the context of transport infrastructure investment, which is heavily skewed towards the south – especially London, which enjoys the lowest mortality in the country. What’s more, if reliable and affordable public transport is not available, people will drive more and expose themselves to higher risk of an accident.

Deaths for young adults in the north of England have been increasing compared to those in the south since the late 1990s, creating new health divides between England’s regions. It seems that persistent social, economic and health inequalities are responsible for a growing trend of psychological distress, despair and risk taking among young northerners. Without major changes, the extreme concentration of power, wealth and opportunity in the south will continue to damage people’s health, and worsen thenorth-south divide.The Conversation

, Professor in Data Science and Health Services Research,

 

 

This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the .

 

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Thu, 28 Feb 2019 14:54:14 +0000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_thenorth-878956.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/thenorth-878956.jpg?10000
Poverty blamed for widening north-south gap in young adult deaths /about/news/poverty-blamed-on-widening-north-south-gap-in-young-adult-deaths/ /about/news/poverty-blamed-on-widening-north-south-gap-in-young-adult-deaths/306821A major study of mortality across England led by University of Manchester data scientists blames socioeconomic deprivation for sharp rises in deaths among 22 to 44-year-olds living in the North of England.

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A major study of mortality across England led by University of Manchester data scientists blames socioeconomic deprivation for sharp rises in deaths among 22 to 44-year-olds living in the North of England.

, lead author of paper published today, says the data reveals a profoundly concerning gap in mortality between the North and the South, especially in men.

Deaths from accidents, alcohol and drug poisoning increased nationwide, but more quickly in the North, where deprivation tends to be greater and more widespread, find the team.

Over three years between 2014 and 2016, 3530 more men and 1881, more women aged between 25 and 44 died in the North than in the South from 2014 to 2016, when population and age are taken into account.

Accounting for age and sex, northerners aged 25-44 were 47% more likely to die from cardiovascular reasons, 109% more likely to die from alcohol misuse and 60% more likely from drug misuse, compared to southerners.

London had the lowest mortality rates, with the North East having the highest, even after adjusting for age, sex and socio-economic deprivation.

Suicide among men, especially at ages 30-34, and cancer deaths among women were also important factors.

National cardiovascular death rates declined over the study period, though the North - South gap persists.

The research was funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Health eResearch Centre, which is supported by a consortium of 10 funders including the Medical Research Council.

“Sharp rises in deaths from accidents, suicide, alcohol misuse, smoking, cancer and drug addiction appear to have created new health divisions between England’s regions and are profoundly concerning.” said Professor Kontopantelis

“These causes of death are all strongly associated with socioeconomic deprivation and in our models two-thirds of the excess mortality in the north was explained by that.

“Alcohol for example, underpins the steep and sustained increase in liver cirrhosis deaths in Britain from the 1990s, when the North-South divide in mortality for those aged 25-44 started to emerge.”

Previous research has shown that men aged 25-44 and living the most deprived areas are five times more likely to die from alcohol-related diseases. And the risk for women, is four times greater.

And previous research has also found that unskilled men aged 25-39 are 10-20 times more likely to die from alcohol-related causes, compared to professionals.

It is widely known that mortality rates for cancer are higher in more deprived areas and have worse survival rates where smoking and alcohol abuse is more prevalent.

Heroin and crack cocaine addiction and deaths from drug overdoses are also strongly associated with deprivation.

Mortality data for adults aged 25-44 were aggregated and compared between England’s five northernmost versus its five southernmost Government Office Regions, between 1981 and 2016.

It revealed that, although there was little difference between early deaths in the North and the South in the 1990s, by 2016 a gap had opened up nonetheless.

Professor Kontopantelis added: “The reasons for the divide are complex and reach back centuries, with extreme concentration of power, wealth and opportunity in the capital having a malign effect on the rest of the country.

“England’s centralist tradition has blighted successive generations, and without major structural change will continue to damage public health.

“Worse health outcomes in the North reflect higher average levels of deprivation, and the sex difference we find in the North-South mortality gap is plausibly related to greater susceptibility of men to those socioeconomic pressures.

“If these recent trends are not stopped, the national gains made from falling cardiovascular deaths will be overridden and excess mortality in the North may exceed 50%.”

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Wed, 31 Oct 2018 14:45:00 +0000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_poverty.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/poverty.jpg?10000
Technology used to map Mars now measuring effect of treatment on tumours /about/news/technology-map-mars-measuring-treatment-tumours/ /about/news/technology-map-mars-measuring-treatment-tumours/273933A machine learning approach for assessing images of the craters and dunes of Mars, which was developed at Vlogٷ, has now been adapted to help scientists measure the effects of treatments on tumours.

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A machine learning approach for assessing images of the craters and dunes of Mars, which was developed at Vlogٷ, has now been adapted to help scientists measure the effects of treatments on tumours.

Because tumours are not uniform and different parts of them change at varying speeds, it is difficult for researchers to see what effects their treatments are having against a background of changes that would happen anyway.

Typically, to obtain meaningful results scientists have to look at average changes in tumours using many samples, often in animals. With conventional statistical methods, it can be difficult to assess the effects of treatment on individuals, as would be required for personalised medicine.

The machine learning technique was developed at Manchester to help planetary scientists map features on planets such as Mars. It was designed to better understand the errors and uncertainties of observations, thereby enabling researchers to present their findings with confidence.

The Manchester team, from worked in collaboration with , Head of Imaging within on studies of lab mice. They applied their machine learning technique, called Linear Poisson Modelling, to the samples and were able to demonstrate a four-fold increase in the precision of tumour change measurements that detected the beneficial effects of cancer therapies.

, from the University’s Division of Informatics, Imaging & Data Sciences, said: “The results of this study show that we can present findings which researchers can be much more certain of. This means you can get the same quality of data from one sample instead of 16.”

"This has important implications for research, meaning that instead of using 16 mice, in some studies only one is needed. This could help reduce the use of lab mice in medical research. It also opens up the potential for this technique to be used in patients by quickly and confidently identifying if drugs are having a specific effect on their tumours.”

Linear Poisson Modelling works by learning patterns within data and how they can change. Unlike other machine learning methods, such as the popular Deep Learning, it can also assess the effects of errors in data, providing as an additional output predictions of how precise its results are. The improved modelling of data also means that fewer samples are needed to provide highly accurate results.

Dr Paul Tar, who co-developed the method during his PhD project, added: “This technique is all about making the most of ‘small data’, which is common in medical studies where it is difficult to obtain large numbers of samples. Researchers use charitable or public money, so it is important that they use it in the most efficient way possible, something which this technique allows.”

Dr James O’Connor, a advanced clinician scientist, said: “Every person’s cancer is unique, which can make treating the disease challenging as a drug that works for one patient might not work for someone else. That’s why we’re increasingly looking at finding new ways to make treatment more personal, and this innovative work could be a step towards that goal. The next step will be further research to find out if that’s the case, and to help uncover this method’s potential.”

The paper, ‘,’ has been published in the journal BioInformatics. DOI: 10.1093/bioinformatics/bty115/4934935

Planetary science applications are described in ‘, (Advances in Space Research, 2015) DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.043

The project was funded by , and Cancer Research UK. Funding for Dr Tar’s PhD was provided by . Support was provided by the at Cambridge and Manchester

Cancer

 is one of Vlogٷ’s - examples of pioneering discoveries, interdisciplinary collaboration and cross-sector partnerships that are tackling some of the biggest questions facing the planet. #ResearchBeacons

 

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Tue, 24 Apr 2018 10:12:36 +0100 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/500_istock-507280516.jpg?10000 https://content.presspage.com/uploads/1369/istock-507280516.jpg?10000
Does Mark Zuckerberg have too much power at the helm of Facebook? /about/news/mark-zuckerberg-too-much-power-facebook/ /about/news/mark-zuckerberg-too-much-power-facebook/271377The scandal around Facebook’s privacy practices and the way that it protects its users data – now for possibly violating US federal securities laws – brings into question . In particular, the fact that its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, owns approximately 16% of Facebook but commands 60% of its voting power .

Facebook is not alone in this respect. There appears to be a trend among newly-listed, mostly high-growth, firms to have these corporate governance structures that provide shareholders with weak rights . The dual class share structure, as in Facebook’s case, is only one of several measures to ensure that the founding member team remains in power.

As well as Facebook, companies that have established these sorts of governance mechanisms include Berkshire Hathaway, Expedia, FitBit, Ford, Google (Alphabet), GoPro, Hyatt Hotels, Snap, . The main defence of this governance measure, used by the founders or family heirs of these firms, is that it allows the companies to take a long-term view and make investment decisions that may not necessarily yield results in the short run.

But the recent Facebook scandal also highlights that these corporate governance mechanisms appear to make firms immune to calls for change, particularly if the leadership of the firm is affected.

Good vs bad governance

Shareholders are the main providers of capital for publicly listed companies. In return, they receive a variety of rights, such as voting at the annual general meeting and electing the directors who sit on the board.

that firms in which shareholders have many opportunities to raise their voice tend to perform better than firms with weak shareholder rights. Hence, firms with strong shareholder rights are often considered “good” corporate governance firms. Firms with weak shareholder rights are typically referred to as “bad” corporate governance firms.

Facebook might benefit from giving shareholders more say. focal point / Shutterstock.com

This is, however, a very simplified way of describing things. There is no blueprint for good corporate governance as every firm is likely to have different needs, and these also change .

Yet, there is little a controversy about the fact that when there is little opportunity for existing shareholders or outside activist investors to influence things, managers and directors can become entrenched and make decisions that could harm the business – and therefore shareholders. And companies where the board of directors can make decisions without fear of being replaced “dictatorship firms”.

Pros and cons of dictatorship

As it turns out, under certain conditions, dictatorship firms may actually perform well. Recent that in order to foster innovation, reward for long-term success and job security are important. The way that dictatorship firms are set up facilitates this.

Data also that dictatorship firms can increase company value by allowing it to take a long-term view. Hence, shareholders provide capital to dictatorship firms by trusting the skills and vision of the founder and leadership team to identify, invest in, and manage projects that guarantee continual high future growth.

But dictatorship-style corporate governance can become problematic in three scenarios. First, when growth and innovation slow down. This contradicts one of the main arguments in favour of dictatorship firms – that their long-term focus fosters innovation and that this is associated with high growth. But when growth does slow down, the firm will have fewer investment opportunities.

Plus, lower spending tends to mean higher future cash holdings and academic evidence that as companies accumulate more cash, they tend to make worse investment decisions. Hence, in those firms, it becomes more important to monitor how capital is spent and to consider paying out more to shareholders.

A second problematic situation for dictatorship firms is how to handle succession – something Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, . As Musk puts it: the dual class structure can be taken to an extreme “where one class basically doesn’t count”. That’s the public shareholders. And, although possible, it is rare that the children of the founders are the right people to continue running the firm (which is a common line of succession in a dictatorship firm). Hence, there needs to be a path towards a single share class so that control is not passed on via dictatorship.

The third problematic scenario for dictatorship firms is when a dramatic change in the course of action of the company is required – particularly in response to scandals. Since 2010, Facebook has had (excluding the Cambridge Analytica scandal). In a company with strong shareholder rights, it is likely that a change in the executive leadership team would have happened by now.

The ConversationNot all hope for better corporate governance is lost, however. The ride-hailing app company Uber provides an example of how change , despite having an entrenched leadership team. After several scandals emerged at the end of 2017, its board made former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick step down and revoked his super-voting rights, . Facebook is yet to make similar moves but it would create a more democratic governance structure if it did so.

, Lecturer in Finance,

This article was originally published on . Read the .

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NHS funding's north-south divide: why the 'sicker' north gets less money /about/news/nhs-fundings-north-south-divide-why-the-sicker-north-gets-less-money/ /about/news/nhs-fundings-north-south-divide-why-the-sicker-north-gets-less-money/270692NHS funding's north-south divide: why the 'sicker' north gets less money File 20180308 30986 s6fp1a.jpg?ixlib=rb 1.1

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Primary care is . Funding of general practice has not risen in line with the being placed upon it. Patients are and recruitment and retention of GPs is a big problem. While I strongly advocate for more primary care funding, this needs to be done in an equitable manner, with resources going to the patients and areas that need them the most.

Since 2004, most funding for general practices in England has been calculated using a method known as the . This method of distributing funds opens up a north-south divide and sees more cash going to areas with the least need. Practices in the north of England are deprived of vital resources while practices in areas such as London are .

The formula, although based on common sense principles, is now outdated and not fit for purpose. Successive governments have but no alternative has been introduced. To ease the stress on the NHS and ensure the right resources get to the right people, the method of funding primary care needs to overhauled.

How the formula works

The Carr-Hill formula uses a number of factors to calculate how much money a practice should receive. , the number of newly registered patients, how rural a practice is and whether the practice is located in London. It also includes a measure of how healthy the practice population is.

However, the calculation for measuring the health of the practice population is too simplistic and does not reflect reality. Rural practices, and those located in London, receive a higher proportion of funds because their locations are deemed to be more costly to practice from. This is partially due to perceived higher staffing costs in London and remoteness from hospital services in rural areas. But that these factors combine to skew the formula and divert funds away from areas with sicker patients. Our analysis shows that areas with the highest levels of ill health are not always the best funded. This is because of the simplistic measure of illness in the formula and the weighting given to factors such as being in London.

How it could work

We used publicly available data to evaluate if primary care funding in England matched health needs. The team examined data from 7,779 GP practices in England, covering almost 57m people (99% of the population). Unlike the measure of illness in the Carr-Hill formula, we devised a method of measuring illness based on what chronic conditions patients have recorded with their GPs. This method is much more sophisticated than the basic measure of health needs used by the Carr-Hill formula. By linking funding per person with the overall health needs for recorded chronic conditions, our research shows that current arrangements for GP practices are unreliable.

The work illustrates that practices in London and rural areas tend to receive a disproportionately high level of funding in comparison to the health needs of the populations that they serve.

‘Ghost patients’

In addition to the London bias intrinsically present in the Carr-Hill formula, a second piece of research by our team demonstrated that the presence of “ghost patients” on the books of GP practices may be exacerbating the . The census – done every ten years – is taken as the definitive measure of the English population. However, there are roughly 2m more patients registered with GPs in England than there are on the English census. By looking at registration with practices in comparison to the census population we were able to ascertain certain areas and demographic factors that were linked to higher levels of over-registration.

Our analysis showed that London has considerably higher levels of patients registered with GPs, in comparison to citizens recorded on the census, compared to the rest of England. On average, London practices have 6% more patients on their lists than local census data suggests would live in the practice area. This compares with an average over-registration level of 3.9% for the entire English population.

Other factors linked to over-registration levels were higher levels of non-white British population, elderly populations and greater proportion of females. The reasons behind over-registration are not fully clear but our analysis indicated one cause could be patients that have been registered with a GP and have then left the country. Moving areas, and registering with a new GP, would trigger removal from an existing practice list. However, there is no commonly followed procedure for removing a patient from a practice list when they leave the country. London has a highly international, transient population and this could partially explain why it has more “ghost” patients.

Numerous calls have been made over the last decade for the allocation of primary care funding to be changed and it is expected to be this year.

The ConversationOur work is evidence that the current arrangements are unjust and need changing. The method that sees extra funding allocated to rural or London based practices needs to be reviewed, as does the way in which the health of populations is measured. If these changes aren’t made then the north-south divide will widen and those patients and practices who need the funding most will continue to miss out.

, GP and In-Practice Fellow,

This article was originally published on . Read the .

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GP funding has unfair London bias, finds study /about/news/gp-funding-has-unfair-london-bias-finds-study/ /about/news/gp-funding-has-unfair-london-bias-finds-study/257513New research led by University of Manchester data scientists reveals that primary care funding in England is not distributed according to local health needs.

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New research led by University of Manchester data scientists reveals that primary care funding in England is not distributed according to local health needs.

GP practices in London where the population is relatively young, they say, receive disproportionately more funding, despite dealing with the lowest level of health needs in the country.

London, they calculate, has a median of 0.38 health conditions per patient based, on a measure of 19 well-recorded chronic conditions.

In contrast, the North East and North West of England have 0.59 conditions per patient and 0.55 conditions per patient, the highest and second highest health needs in England respectively.

The median for England is 0.51 health conditions per patient.

Both regions receive considerably lower funding per patient than they should, especially the North West, according to the research team from The Universities of Manchester, York, Keele, Michigan and Dundee. This is particularly relevant for Greater Manchester and its devolved health and health social care spending, which is estimated to be £2bn in deficit by 2020, on current trends.

The team also reveal that when health care needs, deprivation and age are taken into account, rural areas receive £36 more compared to urban areas, per patient each year.

The £36 figure is more than a quarter of the median annual primary care spend per patient in England, which was £134 in 2015-16, excluding the cost of prescriptions and drug dispensing.

Practices in rural England tend to look after an older but relatively healthier, more affluent and smaller population, they say, while enjoying similar levels of staffing, when compared to the more hard-pressed practices in urban areas.

The study, led by Manchester’s Professor , is the first to evaluate if primary care funding in 2015-16 matched health care needs at geographical areas with an average of 1500 people.

The team examined data from 7,779 GP practices in England, covering 56,924,424 people, over 99% of the population registered with primary care, and publish their findings in the journal BMC Medicine today.

To measure health needs, the team created a chronic morbidity index (CMI), calculated as the sum of 19 chronic condition registers in the Government’s 2014-15 Quality and Outcomes Framework, divided by the total practice population.

By linking funding per person with the overall health needs for the 19 conditions, the researchers say the current funding arrangement for GP practices – known as the global sum allocation or Carr-Hill formula – is unreliable and out of date.

The formula, they argue, may excessively favour practices in rural areas, while patient need - one of the factors on which payment adjustments are made- is based on a single dimension of morbidity - Long-Standing Illness - from the 1998-2000 Health Survey for England.

 

Numerous calls have been made over the last decade for the formula to be reviewed, and it is expected to be reviewed by the Government this year.

Professor Kontopantelis said: “If as a society we want a healthcare system which is fair, then we must fund it according to need, and ideally account for the impact of deprivation.

“This study shows that the current allocation of resources to primary care does not do that.

“The strength of the study lies in the quality of the databases and their sizes. We investigated the whole of England: that’s over 55 million people served by a universal health system.”

Tim Doran, Professor of Health Policy at The University of York, said: “The present funding formula does not provide an equitable distribution of resources across the NHS. It is especially unfair to the North West and North East of England.

“The Carr-Hill formula, which is used to allocate NHS funding, is based on a range of data, some of which are inaccurate, unrepresentative or out of date. As a result, the formula does not accurately reflect the health care needs of local populations.

“New data sources could provide a fairer allocation of resources.”

The study was partially funded by the Medical Research Council.

The paper is called “”

Graphics:

  • Map showing Ratio of Chronic Morbidity Index (measure of health needs aggregated between 19 chronic conditions) over average primary medical care spending per patient (x1000), 2015-16
  • Map showing chronic morbidity index for England 2014 to 15
  • Scatter plot of average primary medical care spending for 2015-16 by the chronic morbidity index (top) and the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation (bottom), across English regions

The primary unit of analysis was the Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) in England: 32,844 administrative units of geography with an average population of 1,500

Deprivation was measured though the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).[23]

To measure the morbidity burden the team created a chronic morbidity index (CMI), calculated as the sum of 19 chronic condition registers in the 2014-15 QOF, divided by the total practice population.

NHS payments to general practices for 2015-16 were reported by NHS Digital, covering all centrally managed payment schemes and also the decentralised Local Enhanced Services scheme

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Manchester set to bring data research expertise to The Alan Turing Institute /about/news/manchester-data-research-alan-turing-institute/ /about/news/manchester-data-research-alan-turing-institute/246958Vlogٷ is one of four institutions announced today as joining the Alan Turing Institute.

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Vlogٷ is one of four institutions announced today as joining the Alan Turing Institute.

Manchester, alongside Leeds, Newcastle and Queen Mary University of London - are set to become university partners with the Institute, which is the UK’s is the national institute for data science, based in London.

is named in honour of Alan Turing (23 June 1912 – 7 June 1954), whose pioneering work in theoretical and applied mathematics, engineering and computing are considered to be the key disciplines comprising the emerging field of data science.

In 1948 was appointed Reader in the Department at Manchester. Soon afterwards he became Deputy Director of the Computing Laboratory, and worked on software for one of the earliest true computers - the Manchester Ferranti Mark 1.

During this time he continued to do more abstract work, addressing the problem of artificial intelligence; he proposed an experiment now known as the Turing test, an attempt to define a standard for a machine to be called `intelligent‘. The idea was that a computer could be said to `think’ if it could fool an interrogator into believing that the conversation was with a human.

Manchester will join founding universities of Cambridge, Edinburgh, Oxford, Warwick and UCL and will work with a growing network of partners in industry and government to advance the world-changing potential of data science.

Alan Wilson, CEO of the Institute, commented: “We are extending our university network in recognition of our role as a national institute and because we believe that increasing collaboration between researchers and private, public and third sector organisations will enable the UK to undertake the most ambitious, impactful research possible.

“We are delighted to be in discussions with Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle and Queen Mary University of London about joining the Institute network, and we see this as an important first step in a much wider programme of engagement with the university sector in the UK and, over time, internationally.”

Manchester has an engaged of over 600 investigators, with methodologists embedded in Schools across the University working on research in health and biology, social and policy, environment, urban, business and management and the physical sciences.

The new universities set to join the Turing network all demonstrate alignment with the Institute’s research interests, ability to bring new expertise and opportunities which add to the core strengths of the Institute and its existing partners, and are willing to contribute financially to the Institute.

Subject to signing a partnership agreement, it is anticipated that the new university partners will be working with the Institute to develop collaborative programmes of research from early 2018.

Leading researchers from the four new institutions set to join the Turing agree that this is a special chance for leading universities to join forces across the UK, creating a critical mass of expertise, experience and energy to support the Institute’s influential data science research.

, Associate Vice President of Research at Vlogٷ commented: “We are all excited by the prospect of working more closely with colleagues in the Turing, and hope we can help to strengthen a critically important national asset.”

Professor Jonathan Seckl, Vice Principal of the University of Edinburgh (one of the five founding universities of The Alan Turing Institute) commented: “We were delighted to be invited to become a founder member of The Alan Turing Institute in 2015, recognising the pivotal importance of a national convening network for data science and artificial intelligence research of the highest international quality in the UK.

“It is critical that we continue to grow this national resource to maintain the UK at the international forefront. I look forward to working with the outstanding new partners within the extended Turing network to further advance this transformational area of science and realise its benefits across all sectors of the economy and for society.”

Find out more about data science at Vlogٷ through

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Minister measures health for Manchester’s digital health revolution /about/news/minister-measures-health-for-manchesters-digital-health-revolution/ /about/news/minister-measures-health-for-manchesters-digital-health-revolution/116956

Life Sciences Minister George Freeman will today open the new home to the of the Farr Institute at Vlogٷ, creating a North of England hub for some of the world’s best digital and health research.

Vaughan House will be one of the leading venues in the country to develop new technologies that can empower patients to understand and take control over their own healthcare through smartphones, wearable devices and healthcare records.

From citizen science experiments such as (arthritis and weather) to NHS-linked projects such as (mental health symptoms and medication), HeRC is helping to connect citizens, patients and care-services for better prevention and care through technology.

Academic, healthcare and business leaders have welcomed the minister to see how Manchester is leading the way in the digital health revolution.

George Freeman will also endorse Greater Manchester Academic Health Science Network’s project at CityLabs. The project is linking data across different health care organisations to provide an innovative solution to improving both direct clinical care and how patients access information about their healthcare.  He will also see how the Manchester Science Partnership is building a new concentration of businesses at the junction of NHS and University sites to incubate growth in the digital health sector.

Life Sciences Minister George Freeman MP said: “It is fantastic to see Manchester playing a central role in developing new 21st century innovations, supported by our annual investment of £1bn through the National Institute for Health Research. By shifting the digital power to patients we are allowing them to monitor their own health through things like wearable devices and apps.

“The Academic Health Science Network is helping to drive forward the Northern Powerhouse in Manchester which is supporting the local needs of the health and social care services.”

Ian Greer, Vice-President and Dean of Medical and Human Science Faculty at Vlogٷ said:  “Vast amounts of data are collected every day by health care organisations across Greater Manchester. Used together and responsibly, this is a mine of information which can improve public services, develop new treatments and save time and money.

“Greater Manchester is a leader in this emerging field, so we were very happy that the minister is speaking to us and learn how what we are doing here can be applied further afield.”

Notes for editors

For information on photos and the opening of Vaughan House contact Stephen Melia, Communication Lead, Health eResearch Centre, Tel: 0161 306 7876 / 07557 310 213

For interviews with George Freeman contact Dan Palmer, Senior Press Officer, Department of Health Tel: 0207 7210 5301 / 07900 135 983

The , a member of the prestigious Russell Group, is the UK’s largest single-site university with 38,600 students. It has 20 academic schools and hundreds of specialist research groups undertaking pioneering, multi-disciplinary teaching and research of worldwide significance. The University is one of the country’s major research institutions, rated fifth in the UK in terms of ‘research power’ (REF 2014), and has had no fewer than 25 Nobel laureates either work or study there. The University had an annual income of £1 billion in 2014/15. Visit www.manchester.ac.uk

The Health eResearch Centre (HeRC) is delivering large scale, population wide health research by harnessing the power of information and technology. Led by Vlogٷ and bringing together research excellence across the North of England (in partnership with the universities of Lancaster, Liverpool and York) the Health eResearch Centre is increasing the pace of progress in the UK’s health sector by turning under-used health information into new knowledge. For more information please visit #datasaveslives

Manchester Science Partnerships (MSP) is a Manchester based public-private partnership and the UK's largest science park operator. It provides the right environments for innovation to flourish - supporting the growth of companies in the biomedical, ICT, industrial technologies, and digital/creative sectors, ranging in size from start-ups to EU HQs an international centres of R&D excellence. It's network of connections between innovators, thinkers, investors and entrepreneurs brings businesses and people together to transform ideas into commercial reality. MSP's shareholders are Bruntwood Ltd, Vlogٷ, Manchester Metropolitan University, Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Manchester, Cheshire East and Salford City Councils.

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Smartphone revolution has caused ‘data overload’, says technology innovator /about/news/smartphone-revolution-has-caused-data-overload-says-technology-innovator/ /about/news/smartphone-revolution-has-caused-data-overload-says-technology-innovator/115845

Attendees of the annual Turing Lecture taking place at Vlogٷ tomorrow (Wednesday) will hear how smartphone technology has completely revolutionised the way we work and live.

In the lecture, entitled “The Internet of Me: It’s All About My Screens”, Robert Schukai from Thomson Reuters, will talk about the fact that data is now everywhere, and managing and processing so much information poses enormous challenges for consumers and service providers alike.

Overall mobile subscriptions are set to jump by 1.7 billion over the next five years to 9.1 billion. 4.1 billion people of these will sign up to 4G technology, and almost 70% of all mobile traffic data is projected to be video by 2021. People are constantly connected, meaning their work and personal lives are blending into one another.

“Today, many people kick off their day by reading emails in bed and getting a start on the day before their commute,” Mr Schukai will say. “Our devices let us remain in contact with family members and friends throughout the day, and when we go home at night, colleagues still reach out and contact many of us until bedtime.”

This shift in how we live and work presents major challenges in balancing the delivery of information and content to people without it becoming overwhelming.

Cognitive computing, defined as the stimulation of human thought processes in a computerised model, is part of the future solution. “Machines must learn. Machines must think – artificial intelligence. Machines must interact with people – natural language processing - and they must interact with other machines,” Mr Schukai will reveal.

“Right now Google understands my browsing history on my desktop, knows my location and understands my interests - as such, it proactively pushes content to me. In the future, it will recognise and learn what I care about, understand what I can and can’t do on a device, and strike a balance between anticipate, push and pull of content.”

He will add that ‘making people smile’, by delivering personal, contextual and relevant information using whatever device they want to access that content upon, was something service providers especially needed to grasp.

Naomi Climer, President of lecture co-hosts The Institution of Engineering and Technology, said: “We would like to thank Robert for making time to deliver this inspiring Turing Lecture. The content will highlight the reach of engineering and technology in everything we do. Engineering is fundamental to everyday life, and Robert’s focus on the remarkable adoption of the smartphone and its impact on how we live our lives at work and at home emphasises this point. Engineering is not just about nuts, bolts and girders - it is about life-changing innovation. These lectures can contribute to that shift in perception.”

Jos Creese, President of The Chartered Institute for IT, added: “We have supported the Turing Lecture for a number of years because of the opportunities it brings to raise public awareness of the application of specialist research to social issues. Robert’s lecture will be extremely thought-provoking, and will showcase the impact of information technology on our lives and how we need to keep the consumer at the forefront of all innovations.”

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